A new way to use climate change models developed by NOAA may be used to forecast effects on Delaware Bay fisheries according to a recent news report. The basic conclusion, as I understand it from a range of conversations with researchers and a reading of the available information, is that the changes forecast for our Delaware Bay will make the bay more challenging for oyster growers but potentially more favorable for blue claw crabs.
The Virginia Pilot reports “NOAA said its researchers might apply the same “downscaling” method to predict the potential effects of climate change on other species such as blue crabs and striped bass and other estuaries
, including the Delaware Bay.” Other published seafood industry publications have predicted that these same forces of water temperature warming and acidification might actually benefit blue claw crabs.
My own opinion, not necessarily shared by researchers or the oyster industry*, is that resistant strains of oysters will be developed to combat the adverse effects of climate change (vibrio and acidification) but that seafood consumers will eventually insist on seafood (including oysters) that is sterilized through some procedure to kill any potential pathogens prior to consumption. That technology exists today but is not widely used. In the end
, these development are more likely to have greater (positive) impact on funding for the scientific community by triggering the need for more research and development than on consumers or the seafood industry.
*Opinions expressed in this blog are my own and do not represent the opinions of any of the commercial or educational firms associated with Nantuxent Corporation.